Good afternoon. Happy Friday. Ag markets had a strong close to the week on Friday as all three major crops closed in the green. Like most of last week, wheat was the upside leader today on continued concerns over dryness in Russia, as well as US wheat country. At the close Friday open interest stood at 5,072 contracts on May corn, 996 contracts on May soybeans, and 609 contracts on May wheat.

CN ended the week at 4.60 1/4, up 1/2 cent. CZ closed at 4.82 3/4, up 3 1/4. Both old and new crop closed above their 100-day moving averages. SN closed at 12.15, up 16 cents. SX was up 13 1/4 at 12.01. New crop beans also closed above their 100-day moving average to end the week. WN closed at 6.22 1/2, up 18 1/4. Products were mixed, July bean meal was up $7.30/ton at 372.20, and July bean oil was down 16 points at 43.08. Meal traded its highest level since the first day of February. Livestock markets were mixed to end the week; June live cattle closed at 176.67, down 12 cents, August feeders closed at 254.75, down 47 cents, and June hogs closed at 98.95, down 97 cents. Hogs traded their lowest level since the middle of March. Outside markets are mixed, crude oil futures are down 60-90 cents/bbl, the Dow Jones index is up 450 points, and the US$ index is down 25 points.

Spreads were weaker to wrap up the week, corn spreads were down 5-8 cents, and soybean spreads were down a penny and a half to 4 cents. CK/CN dropped off to -13 1/4, which is also where SK/SN closed.

For the week, July corn was up 10 1/4, Dec corn was up 9 1/4, July soybeans were up 37 3/4, Nov beans were up 26 1/4, and July wheat was up 1/4 of a cent. In products, July meal was up 27.50, and July bean oil was down 2.46.

The USDA announced daily sales this morning of 122,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/24 marketing year. This was the first and only daily sales flash of the week.

Analysts are attempting to figure out to what extent the damages are from recent inundating rains in the far Southern part of Brazil. Rio Grande do Sol was at one point in the season expected to have a record breaking soybean crop, but locals now see losses in the range of 3 to 5 mmt's following heavy late season rains; this would be a roughly 20% reduction from what was expected. While soybean harvest in the North is estimated around 90% complete, Southern areas have only harvested around 60-70% of the crop. More will likely be known in coming weeks, as it is simply too early to tell exactly how much damage has been done at this point. The USDA will give its next production estimate a week from today on May 10th, while Conab will give its next update the following week on May 14th.

USDA will also release its initial balance sheets for the 2024/25 crop year next Friday. The trade generally expects a somewhat bearish reaction, as stocks for both corn and soybeans look to be up from the previous year. Interesting will be what USDA decides to do on the soy product balance sheets, specifically as it pertains to bean oil usage and meal stocks. With a new growing season ahead and a lot of the report's possible bearish news fairly well known, a buy the rumor/sell the fact reaction is possible when the numbers come out.

Soybean meal trade continues to be a product of on-again/off-again labor strikes at ports in Argentina. The strikes look to continue in frequency, but amid a general lack of savings by the Argentine laborer, do not look to last very long in duration. Sources expect a short strike on Tuesday next week, and a larger one next Thursday. Prices will move sharply in either direction short-term depending on the labor situation that day.

This afternoon's COT report showed that in the week ending April 30th, managed money traders were net buyers of corn, wheat, and meal, and were net sellers of soybeans and soybean oil. Funds are now seen short 218,040 contracts of corn futures/options, short 149,236 contracts of soybean futures/options, and short 47,866 contracts of wheat futures/options. The wheat short is the smallest it's been since last July. In the products, fund managers bought 23,915 contracts of soybean meal futures/options, and sold 17,355 contracts in soybean oil futures/options. Funds are now seen short 66,882 contracts in bean oil, and are long 43,596 contracts in meal.

Stock index futures traded higher to end the week on this morning's monthly jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 in April, while economists had forecast an increase of 243,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 3.9%, which was 0.1% higher than anticipated and also 0.1% higher than last month. And wages increased 3.9% in the 12 months through April, after rising 4.1% in March. This was the first time in nearly three years that annual wages fell below 4%. "Today's report was a far cry from the kind of labor market weakness that would prompt a Fed rate cut," said chief economist at FNH Financial Chris Low.

Again not a lot of weather change going into the weekend. Traders will be anxiously awaiting Sunday night/Monday morning to see if there are any shifts over the next 48 hours that will either open or close planting windows. As of mid-day today, models still see a pattern shift beyond May 13-15 to more cool/dry air. Three storm system are still set to roll through the Midwest between now and then bringing rain to most of the midsection of the country totaling 0.5" to 3". As has been mentioned, confidence beyond 5 days is low, so next week's forecasts will be important.

Pattern for South America remains unchanged as well. Heavy rains continue in far S Brazil/N Argentina, while the rest of Brazil is completely absent of moisture. Argentina continues to see frost concerns for the next several days in the South, though damage will be impossible to quantify for some time.

Markets next week will be all about fund positioning ahead of the end of week report from the USDA. Have a good weekend!